2002issue C021-3
Retest the entry before you exit
Hold, add, and exit decisions belong on one checklist that re-runs the original entry reasons. Concentration caps and price bounds stay inside that review as filters, not as one-line replacements for it.
- A hold, an add, or an exit is one checklist: run the original-reasons-check and the repurchase-test.
- A single-factor-exit or a paper-loss-delay does not complete the sell decision, and adding after a decline still requires a validity check.
- A position-concentration-limit and a price-bound-filter bound size and loss inside the procedure. They do not replace it.
- If the original reasons remain intact, the procedure points to a hold. If enough of those reasons have changed, it points to an exit.
Opening comments outnumber exit rules
Commentary on opening a position is described as plentiful, while comparable guidance on when to exit is described as scarce.
Emotional attachment to a favored holding is one reason people delay an exit. Another is a paper-loss-delay, which treats an unrealized decline as not yet a loss and postpones the exit decision.
Adds and targets still need the full test
Adding shares after a decline to lower average cost is framed as a less painful substitute for selling. The move still requires a decision about whether the position remains valid.
Reaching a pre-set price goal is treated as a prompt to reassess, not as a sufficient reason by itself to liquidate.
Isolated triggers are incomplete
Isolated triggers are presented as incomplete unless they feed a fuller review. Those triggers include first adverse news, a sour tape, a tip, or the first pullback after a rise.
A single-factor-exit uses an isolated news item, a tip, a first pullback, or a target print as if it were a complete sell rule.
A first downturn after a gain is treated as a weak stand-alone exit. A holding horizon of four or five years is offered to reduce selling at the first setback.
Restated results, a missed estimate, a shift in the industry, or signs of weak leadership are listed as reasons to reopen the exit question, not as automatic one-factor orders.
Two tests decide hold or exit
The decision test offered is whether the original evaluation factors still apply and whether the same holding would be purchased again at the current price.
The original-reasons-check re-evaluates the factors that justified the entry and treats a material change in enough of those factors as the sell condition.
The repurchase-test asks whether the same holding would be opened again at the current price. A no keeps liquidation on the table.
If the original reasons for the position remain intact, the procedure points to holding. If enough of those reasons have changed, the procedure points to an exit.
Filters sit inside the procedure
A position-concentration-limit is a ceiling on how large any one holding may become relative to account equity, applied before and during the position.
The archive guideline limits any single holding to 20 percent of a portfolio valued under 100000, or 10 percent of a larger one. That limit is a portfolio-balance action rather than a price forecast.
A price-bound-filter is a pre-set target, downturn, or stop-style threshold that bounds a loss or a give-back but still requires the rest of the checklist.
All readings on this track · 15 readings
- 1991Keep one risk ceiling after equity highs
- 1999Pre-trade size filters for expectancy and ruin
- 2000Budget the loss before entry with stops and position limits
- 2002Retest the entry before you exit
- 2002Option income after volatility and capital gates
- 2002Cap, scale, and delever when research buys late
- 2003Staying power starts as a planned-loser sizing rule
- 2006Leverage caps and concentration limits
- 2007A first-trade survival sequence for leveraged futures
- 2010Bound trend risk before the trade is placed
- 2011Event shocks, size caps, and second-order reweights
- 2014A copied scale-in ladder is not a personal risk plan
- 2018Worst-day caps for clustered system books
- 2019Pair-spread layer limits and event shocks
- 2020Pretrade quantity filters that bound account risk