US July CPI Forecast: 0.2% MoM, Core 2.5% YoY
US July CPI data is expected to show headline inflation at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core inflation at 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, setting the tone for Fed policy expectations.
Today’s US July CPI release is the most anticipated data point, with economists forecasting a steady monthly increase in prices after a sharp decline in June.
Headline inflation is projected at 0.2% m/m seasonally adjusted, bringing the annual rate to 3.4% — down from 3.5% in June but a reversal from the prior month’s -0.4% m/m print. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is seen also rising 0.2% m/m, pushing the yearly pace to 2.5% from 2.6%.
The numbers will be closely watched for clues on the Fed’s next move. A firmer m/m reading could dent hopes for imminent rate cuts, while a softer print might reinforce the disinflation narrative.
Source: FXStreet Forex News