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macroAug 12, 2026, 12:34 PM

US July CPI rises 3.4%, core at 2.5%, both in line with forecasts

Headline CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year in July, matching expectations, while core CPI printed at 2.5%. Futures pointed higher on the data.

The US consumer price index for July rose 3.4% from a year earlier, matching the consensus estimate. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in at 2.5%, also in line with forecasts.

On a month-over-month basis, CPI increased 0.1%, recovering from a 0.4% decline in June. The numbers suggest inflation continues to moderate but has not re-accelerated.

US stock market futures moved higher immediately after the release, indicating a positive reaction from traders. The data bolsters the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its next meeting.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter