MacroAug 12, 2026, 12:41 PM

September Rate Hike Odds Fall to 34% After US CPI Drops to 3.4%

Market-implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase tumbled to 34% as U.S. consumer price inflation slowed to 3.4% year-over-year, the lowest since mid-July.

The chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September dropped sharply after new inflation data. Odds fell to 34% from roughly double that level at the end of July.

The decline followed the release of U.S. CPI figures, which showed annual inflation falling to 3.4%. This marks the lowest implied probability of a September move since July 17.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter

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