S&P 500 at record highs; history signals more upside
After breaking out to all-time highs, the S&P 500 has risen in 13 of the last 17 similar instances over 30 years, averaging a 6.3% gain over the following six months.
The S&P 500 has returned to record territory, and statistical analysis of the past 30 years suggests the rally may have further to run. Out of the last 17 instances when the index broke out to a fresh all-time high, it advanced in the following six months on 13 occasions, delivering an average gain of about 6.3%.
The four downside exceptions occurred in 2000, 2007, 2018, and 2019 – with the first two marking the onset of severe bear markets. In the most recent episode in 2025, the index added 12.3% over the subsequent six months.
The index has already printed 26 all-time highs in 2026, building on 39 record closes in 2025 and 57 in 2024. According to The Kobeissi Letter, historical patterns indicate that the market’s momentum is likely to persist.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter