MacroAug 7, 2026, 12:40 PM

Gold Jumps Above $4,400 as US Jobs Data Cuts September Rate Hike Odds to 40%

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September tumbled to 40% after an unexpected surge in US job losses. Gold prices rallied above $4,400 per ounce in reaction.

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Markets dramatically repriced the likelihood of tighter monetary policy after the latest US employment report showed the economy unexpectedly lost jobs at a pace not seen since the early pandemic.

The implied probability of a September rate hike tumbled to 40%, down sharply from the 70%+ level that was priced in only a few days ago.

Gold rallied on the news, breaking above $4,400 per ounce as traders sought safety and recalibrated rate expectations.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter

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