Commerzbank Lifts Natural Gas Outlook on LNG Supply Squeeze

Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke revised the bank’s natural gas and German power price forecasts higher, citing a confluence of supply-side pressures. The key factors include lower storage levels across Europe, an increasing dependence on liquefied natural gas imports, and structural constraints that cap Qatar’s ability to ramp up exports.

The outlook also flags additional upside risk from the planned phase-out of Russian gas flows beginning in 2027, which is expected to further tighten the market. The combination of reduced pipeline supply and competitive LNG demand suggests European energy prices will remain elevated over the medium term.