Big Tech AI spending to hit 2.4% of US GDP in 2026, surpassing dot-com era capex
Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are projected to lift capital expenditures to a record 2.4% of US GDP by 2026, exceeding the 1.2% peak of broadcasting and telecom during the dot-com bubble.
Capital expenditures by the largest US technology companies are set to reach 2.4% of GDP in 2026, a full percentage point above the 2025 level, according to estimates cited by The Kobeissi Letter.
The combined CapEx of Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL) stood at just 0.8% of GDP in 2024, comparable to where telecom CapEx was in 1997. By 2025, that share is seen at 1.4%, already above the 1.0% spent by broadcasting and telecom firms in 1999.
By 2027, Big Tech CapEx is projected to more than double from the 2025 level to 3.1% of GDP, far exceeding the 1.2% peak reached by broadcasting and telecom in 2000. The current AI-driven investment cycle is materially outpacing the capital spending surge of the dot-com era.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter