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2013issue C1323-37

A PHM breakaway gap stacked with Elliott labels and mapped support

The January 31, 2013 PHM session was treated as a wide-range bearish breakaway gap after a long advance. The historical workflow then stacked tentative Elliott A and B labels with pre-mapped support so a reversal idea could be confirmed or thrown out on the next swing.

  • A gap after a long directional run can be read as a breakaway gap, the possible start of a new trend rather than a pause inside the old one.
  • Tentative Elliott A and B labels give the gap and a later relief rally a structure the next swing can confirm or reject.
  • Support near 17.30, 15.81, and 14.55, with the Keltner midline as nearer support, locates where a decline is expected to pause, hold, or fail.
  • A break below 19.10 was framed only as a chart condition aligned with a test of 17.30 support, not as a finished call.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackBreakaway gap12 readingsElliott wave analysis165 readingsSupport and resistance227 readings

The gap after a long advance

The January 31, 2013 daily session in PHM was treated as a wide-range bearish breakaway gap after a long advance. A breakaway gap is a gap after a long directional run that is read as the possible start of a new trend rather than a pause inside the old one.

The preceding advance was dated from an October 4, 2011 multicycle low at 3.29 through a January 28, 2013 print of 21.97. That long run is the backdrop that made the gap look like a possible trend change rather than a pause.

Elliott A and B labels

The downside gap was tentatively labeled Elliott wave A, with a later relief rally assigned as wave B. Elliott wave analysis, in this workflow, is a swing-labeling scheme that assigns corrective A and B (and later C) legs so a gap and any relief bounce can be tested as a structured reversal.

Mapped support and the Keltner midline

Support was mapped near 17.30, 15.81, and 14.55. Support and resistance here means horizontal price zones and channel midlines where a decline is expected to pause, hold, or fail, used to locate nearby and deeper exhaustion.

The middle Keltner line was cited as nearer support during an A or C correction. That Keltner midline is the inner midline of a volatility channel treated as nearer-term support while a corrective A or C leg unfolds.

Distribution before the gap day

A 100-day Chaikin money flow histogram was used to argue that longer-term distribution preceded the January 31, 2013 decline. Chaikin money flow, in this use, is a longer-lookback volume-weighted flow histogram used to argue that distribution was already underway before the gap day.

A chart condition for the next swing

A break below 19.10 was framed as a chart condition aligned with a test of 17.30 support. In the archive workflow, that level pairing keeps the reversal idea tied to a later swing rather than to the gap day alone.

Construction-services 4-week and 52-week relative strength, PHM near the top

PHM ranks second in the Construction Services group on four-week relative strength and first on the 52-week column, the snapshot the article used to show how extended the advance already was and why the four-week reading was expected to fade after the January 31 gap. Figures are read from the ranking table printed as Figure 2, not estimated from the daily candlestick chart.
PHM ranks second in the Construction Services group on four-week relative strength and first on the 52-week column, the snapshot the article used to show how extended the advance already was and why the four-week reading was expected to fade after the January 31 gap. Figures are read from the ranking table printed as Figure 2, not estimated from the daily candlestick chart.PHM and Construction Services peers · 4-week and 52-week windows ending late January 2013

The original screen is sorted by the four-week S&P 500 relative-strength column. PHM is the highlighted row; last price in that snapshot is 19.45.

Editorial reading: confirm or throw out

TradersWeek reads the three pieces as a single falsifiable stack. First the gap is treated as a breakaway gap after a long run. Then the A and B labels give the gap and the later relief rally a structure that can fail. Then the mapped supports, including the Keltner midline as nearer support, say where that decline is expected to pause, hold, or fail.

The archive framed a break below 19.10 as aligned with a test of 17.30 support. In this editorial classroom, that is the next-swing test of the reversal idea. This interpretation is editorial. It is not a claim the archive made, and it is not investment advice.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
5 of 7 in the Breakaway gap track
201950-58 pp.Next on Breakaway gapBreakaway gap after a completed double bottomA later unfilled gap is a continuation hypothesis only after a completed double-bottom or double-top is already on the chart.
All readings on this track · 7 readings
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  5. 2013A PHM breakaway gap stacked with Elliott labels and mapped support
  6. 2019Breakaway gap after a completed double bottom
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