Open-range stops after a fifty percent retracement

A halfway buy still needs a bounded exit

A 50 percent retracement of a completed rally can be stated as a specific next-session buy level rather than as an undefined instruction to buy low. In this workflow the fibonacci-retracement is only a discrete price hypothesis that can be accepted or rejected during the next session.

The stop-loss is the precommitted exit that bounds how far price may travel against that idea before the position is abandoned. For a short-hold long idea aiming back toward a prior high, a stop placed beyond the prior swing low can create more risk than that target can justify.

Open-to-extreme on every daily bar

ohlc-construction rebuilds each daily bar from the open, high, low, and close so sessions can be compared on the same scale. The comparison of interest is open-to-extreme, the signed distance from the session open down to the low or up to the high, used as the raw risk unit for a same-day stop.

In an unfiltered daily sample of open-to-low distances, the average decline from the open to the low was about 0.44 points, and some sessions exceeded 2 points. That mix includes days that never resolved in the buyer’s favor, so it is a poor template for a same-session long stop-loss.

What remains after a higher-close-filter

A higher-close-filter keeps only sessions that finish above the prior close, so the open-to-low distribution describes days that still resolved in the buyer’s favor. Limiting that sample to days that closed higher than the prior close cut the average open-to-low distance to about 0.25 points and compressed the largest readings to a little more than 1 point.

In the higher-close subset, about 95 percent of sessions that still closed higher never fell more than 21/32 from the open.

Rebasing each higher-close day so the open equals zero showed typical lows clustered between about 0.25 and 0.50 points below the open, with a reference line near 0.66 points, or about 21/32. That reference is a measured open-to-extreme envelope, not a money-stop set from a fixed tick or cash amount beneath entry.

The halfway level on a later session

On a later session that opened and then fell 11/32, price met the 50 percent retracement and turned. A further drop through 21/32 below the open was treated as a historically rare path to a higher close.

The mirror on down-close days

The mirror study on down-close days found an average open-to-high of about 8 ticks, with about 95 percent of those days staying within 21 ticks of the open. A move more than 22 ticks above the open made a lower close historically remote.