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2005issue C021

Three removable gates for a long entry after a confirmed lower low

This archive article builds a long entry as three written checks: a confirmed lower low, a 38.2 percent Fibonacci reclaim of the swing that sequence created, and a rising-price volume confirmation. Treat the gates as independently removable so a failed trade traces to one rule rather than to a chart impression.

  • The buy price condition is a 20-session low, a still-lower low four sessions later, and a current close above that 20-session low.
  • The 38.2 percent buy level is the four-session low plus 0.382 times the distance up to the high since low.
  • Volume confirmation requires more than 50,000 shares and current volume above the four-session average while price is rising.
  • Editorial reading: keep the lower-low sequence, the Fibonacci reclaim, and the volume check independently removable so a failed trade points to one written rule.
Entries in this reading3 entries

A written long entry

The historical workflow writes a long entry as a buy price condition, a 38.2 percent reclaim, a retracement filter, and volume filters. The buy price condition is a 20-session low, a still-lower low four sessions later, and a current close above that 20-session low.

The 20-session lookback for the first low may be lengthened. The four-session lookback exists so the later low is treated as already established.

Confirmed lower low

A confirmed lower low is a later low printed a fixed number of sessions after an earlier swing low. It is used only once enough bars have passed to treat that later low as established.

In this workflow the later low is the four-session low. If that four-session low is dated zero sessions ago, the signal is ignored. The ignore rule keeps a print that has not yet been established from counting as a buy condition.

Fibonacci reclaim

The 38.2 percent buy level equals the four-session low plus 0.382 times the distance up to the high recorded between the 20-session low and that later low. That intervening high is the high since low: the highest price reached between the earlier swing low and the later lower low.

A Fibonacci reclaim is a close back through a fixed fraction of the range from the later low up to the high recorded between the two lows. One 38.2 percent filter requires the current close above that Fibonacci level and the prior close below it.

Retracement filter

A retracement filter requires the four-session-ago low to sit below the prior close and the current close to exceed the prior close. The filter is a check that price has already bounced off the later low before a buy is allowed.

Editorial reading: the retracement filter belongs with the price sequence. It is not a fourth independent gate in the three-gate construction above. It only asks whether the bounce off the later low is already visible in the closes.

Volume confirmation

Volume filters require more than 50,000 shares traded and current volume above the four-session average while price is rising.

Volume confirmation is a requirement that current volume exceed a short average while price is rising. It is used as a strength gate on the same bar as the price signal.

Companion calculations

Companion calculations include 60-session volatility, volatility-scaled 60-session relative performance, and relative momentum that combines price change with volume versus a 30-session average.

They are recorded as companion calculations, not as part of the buy price condition, the 38.2 percent filter, or the volume filters.

Reading a failed trade

Editorial reading: after a trade, ask which gate failed. Did the confirmed lower-low sequence not hold as written? Did the close fail to reclaim 38.2 percent of the swing? Did volume fail the rising-price check?

Keeping the gates removable turns a repeatable chart condition into a procedure that can be inspected one rule at a time. That reading is editorial and is not an archive claim.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
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All readings on this track · 17 readings
  1. 1996Testing Fibonacci retracement bins with moving-average swings
  2. 1996A pre-trade checklist for pullback entries and abstention
  3. 2003Sliding-window retracements on the relative strength index
  4. 2005Three removable gates for a long entry after a confirmed lower low
  5. 2005Why informal trend calling fails on a confused tape
  6. 2005Currency Fibonacci levels and overnight entry rules
  7. 2006Cycle and Fibonacci timing without trend context
  8. 2007Round-number reversals on equity-index charts
  9. 2008Parameter windows: exponential averages versus the alligator and Fibonacci lookbacks
  10. 2010A Dollar Index bounce as a failed-support, Fibonacci and volume test
  11. 2011A pre-trade checklist before Fibonacci entries
  12. 2012Fractal price growth and measured retracements
  13. 2015Scored reversals wait for a three-bar breakout
  14. 2016Intraday decision areas with Fibonacci and stochastic confirmation
  15. 2020One-to-one Fibonacci support on the February 2020 indexes
  16. 2020Fibonacci retracement levels fail a frequency test
  17. 2020A second-chance daytrade from the mean-reversion pivot zone
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