Swissquote: Back to Black
A Swissquote senior analyst warns that soaring oil prices and Middle East tensions are reigniting inflation expectations, pushing bond yields higher and pressuring equities.
July 14, 2026 – A senior analyst at Swissquote cautions that the sharp rally in crude oil is returning global financial markets to a stress mode, stoking inflation fears and raising the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
US crude jumped 9% on Monday and added another 2.3% this morning, trading near $80 per barrel after dipping below $70 on July 2. The move above its 200-day moving average signals a shift from a short-term blip to a more sustained risk-off environment, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote.
Geopolitical tensions are re-escalating: the US has attacked Iran, Iran has struck neighbouring Gulf countries, a US blockade on Iranian ships has returned to the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington is demanding a 20% fee on all cargoes transiting the Strait. Ozkardeskaya notes that such a fee would amount to roughly $30-34 million per fully loaded oil tanker, and that Bloomberg has described the measure as likely illegal under international law.
Rising Yields and Tech Selloff
The surge in oil is feeding global inflation expectations. The US two-year Treasury yield spiked to nearly 4.30%, its highest since February 2025, while European and Japanese sovereign yields also climbed. Higher yields are weighing on equity markets, with tech stocks hit particularly hard. South Korea’s Kospi index is testing a critical Fibonacci support level; SK Hynix slumped 15% on Monday. The selloff rippled into Europe and the US: ASML fell 1.8%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF lost more than 4% despite strong June sales from TSMC (+6% month-on-month, +68% year-on-year).
CPI and Fed Outlook
US June CPI due today is expected to show headline inflation easing from 4.2% to 3.8% year-on-year and core inflation slipping from 2.9% to 2.8%. However, Ozkardeskaya points out that the recent oil price rebound will push the next inflation reading higher, potentially making today’s figures less relevant. Fed funds futures now price a 77% probability of at least one 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before Congress later today.
Gold and Dollar
The US dollar has strengthened on rising oil prices and hawkish Fed expectations. Gold tested the $4,000 support level and is hovering around $20 above it, but further safe-haven buying may be limited if central banks sell gold reserves to stabilise currencies, as occurred earlier in the war. Longer term, Ozkardeskaya views any pullback in gold as an opportunity for bullish investors.
Source: Swissquote