IG Group Q3 revenue falls about 14% as OTC retention drops to about 70%

IG Group Holdings plc expects third-quarter revenue of approximately £240m, about 14% below the £280.1m reported a year earlier, and has trimmed its full-year outlook to mid-single-digit revenue growth for 2026. The London-listed derivatives broker said in a stock exchange announcement that the numbers are expected figures rather than final results.

The shortfall was not limited to one product line. Net trading revenue is put at about £210m against £249.5m a year ago, while OTC net trading revenue came in at roughly £155m, some 18% lower year on year.

The pressure centres on OTC revenue retention, which IG estimated at about 70% for the quarter, compared with an average of roughly 80% since the retention measures introduced in the second half of 2025. Chief executive Breon Corcoran said growth in first trades and active customers stayed strong during the quarter, and attributed the lower revenue to reduced OTC revenue retention in less supportive market conditions. He added that he remains confident the group will meet its medium-term guidance.

Client acquisition metrics pointed the other way. Organic first trades rose more than 25% and organic active customers increased around 17%, with OTC customer income up about 8%.

Underdog, the business IG is acquiring, posted a rise of more than 100% in third-quarter net revenue to about $105m, with its fourth quarter accounting for over a third of its 2025 revenue. The transaction remains contingent on closing. IG also flagged expected non-recurring costs of about £30m for 2026, of which £16.4m was booked in the first half. Excluding those items and the Underdog acquisition expenses, it expects an EBITDA margin in the low-40s percentage range for 2026.

Shares in IG were trading roughly 23% lower at about 986.5p around 10am London time, against a previous close of 1279p on a delayed quote. The company hosts an Underdog investor seminar next Thursday and will publish further third-quarter detail alongside a strategy update on 22 October.