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Trump Effect: Oil Rises, Stocks Fall as Iran Tensions Escalate
Tensions between the US and Iran escalate on Monday. Donald Trump announces a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and a 20% fee on cargo shipped through it, pushing oil prices higher and stock markets lower.
US Navy Warns of Sustained Presence, Possible Iran Route Diversion
The U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center warns mariners of sustained naval presence, increased IRGC monitoring, and possible diversion of AIS-equipped vessels to a northern Iranian-controlled route, with further hostile activity likely.
US Oil Surges 9% After Trump Reimposes Strait of Hormuz Blockade
US oil prices jumped 9% after President Trump announced the reimposition of a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, requiring ships to pay a fee equal to 20% of their cargo's value to transit.
Gold Price Plunges as Fed's Waller Warns of Possible Rate Hike
Gold (XAU/USD) fell sharply on Monday after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that the Fed should consider raising interest rates if this week's CPI data shows an increase.
Fed's Waller: New Policy Task Forces to Provide Valuable Insights
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank's new policy task forces will offer valuable insights, and that changing the policy framework requires independent review rather than leaving it to the current regime.
US Federal Debt Hits Record $39.4 Trillion
Total US federal debt has reached a record $39.4 trillion, rising $3.2 trillion over the past 12 months. Since 2020, debt has surged by $16.3 trillion.
Fed's Waller Cites Tariffs, Energy, AI Demand as Inflation Upside Risks
Fed Governor Christopher Waller identified tariffs, energy prices, and demand from the AI buildout as factors creating upward pressure on inflation, while noting that earlier fears of oil prices broadly pushing up costs have receded.
Waller Vows to Avoid Repeating Fed’s 2021 Mistake; Labor Market Less Tight
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated he is determined not to repeat the policy errors of 2021, noting that the labor market is now less tight and inflation expectations remain anchored. He also highlighted resilience in household and business spending despite higher goods costs from tariffs and energy price surges from the Middle East conflict.
Fed's Waller: Committed to 2% Inflation, Avoid Over-Tightening, But Worried About Need for More Hikes
Fed Governor Christopher Waller reaffirmed his commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target while also aiming to avoid over-tightening that could trigger a recession. However, he expressed concern that tighter policy may still be necessary.
Waller: Hot Core Inflation This Week May Force Rate Hike Consideration
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if another hot core inflation reading appears this week, the central bank would need to consider a rate hike in the near term. He added that several months of lower core inflation are required to feel inflation is moving in the right direction.
Oil Rises as US Resumes Blockade of Iran
Oil prices climbed on news that the US has reinstated its blockade of Iran, while equities remain largely unfazed, according to Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at an online trading platform.
BNY: EM Equity Positioning Skewed to Korea, Taiwan; Rest at Historic Lows
BNY's Geoff Yu notes emerging market equity positioning is heavily concentrated in South Korea and Taiwan, with the rest of EM seeing historically low allocations amid China weakness and poor data.
US CENTCOM to Announce Timing of Naval Blockade on Monday
The renewed naval blockade has not yet taken effect due to a 24-hour advance notice requirement for ship owners. A US official said the timing will be announced later on Monday.
Societe Generale: Commodity Resilient Despite Middle East Tensions, Oil Capped at $70
Societe Generale analysts note commodity complex resilience to Middle East tensions, with oil gains capped and year-end price forecast at $70.
US CENTCOM Hits Iranian Naval Facility with Sea Drones for First Time
US CENTCOM forces used multiple one-way attack drones to strike a submarine and ship maintenance facility in Iran, marking the first combat use of sea drones by American forces. The strikes targeted the port at Bandar Abbas naval base, degrading Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping.
Trump Declares US 'Guardian of the Hormuz Strait'
President Donald Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain accessible to international shipping 'with or without Iran,' and outlined a new US-led security arrangement for the strategic waterway.
Denmark Consumer Spending Flat in June, Goods Outperform Services – Danske Bank
Danish consumer spending excluding energy remained broadly unchanged month-on-month in June, with a 4.3% year-on-year rise in real spending. Goods retail saw gains, especially in larger categories, while services lagged.
Trump Says Strait of Hormuz Open, Reinstates Iran Blockade, Proposes 20% Fee
President Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, reinstated the Iranian Blockade, and proposed a 20% reimbursement fee on cargo shipped through the waterway to cover U.S. security costs.
Trump Reinstates Strait of Hormuz Blockade, Imposes 20% Cargo Fee
President Trump announced the US is reinstating a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for Iranian ships and customers, and will charge a 20% fee on all cargo shipped through the strait, calling the US the 'Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz.'
Rabobank: US June CPI Seen at 3.8% YoY; Fed Speakers, Warsh Testimony in Focus
Rabobank senior macro strategist Bas van Geffen highlights a data-heavy week for the US dollar, with June CPI expected to cool to 3.8% year-on-year. Core inflation figures and testimony from Kevin Warsh also on the calendar.
Fed Minutes Show Hawkish Bias, TD Securities Says
TD Securities economists note that the June FOMC minutes were hawkish, with most participants ready to hike if supply-driven inflation persists.
UAE Plans New Fujairah Port to Bypass Strait of Hormuz
The UAE is developing a new multipurpose port in Fujairah, allowing containers to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with overland trucking to Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Dubai Port Operator in Talks for New Fujairah Terminal and Multipurpose Port
A Dubai-based port operator is reportedly in talks to build a new multipurpose port along Fujairah's coastline and a new terminal at the emirate's existing harbour.
DP World to Build New Port on UAE East Coast, Bypassing Strait of Hormuz
DP World plans to develop a new port and container terminal on the United Arab Emirates' east coast, reducing dependence on the Jebel Ali hub and providing an alternative route that avoids the Strait of Hormuz.