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UK Faces Brexit Consequences a Decade After Referendum
June 23 marks the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum, which led to the UK's exit from the European Union. The post highlights the ongoing economic and political consequences for the UK.
US Official Says Nuclear Issue First, Then Proxy Funding in Iran Talks
A senior US official stated that after resolving the nuclear issue, discussions will cover proxy funding. This weekend's meeting in Switzerland is critical for advancing talks with Iran.
US Official: Sanctions Relief Possible if Iran Agrees to Downblend Uranium Stockpile
A senior US official stated that sanctions relief would be permitted if a final nuclear deal is reached and Iran complies. Iran has agreed, at minimum, to destroy its enriched uranium stockpile through downblending. The sequencing of steps will be a key topic in forthcoming negotiations.
Iran Agrees to Destroy Uranium Stockpile, Cease Strait of Hormuz Threats: US Official
A senior U.S. official read out the formal text of a memorandum of understanding with Iran, stating that Iran will cease efforts to block the Strait of Hormuz and destroy its enriched uranium stockpile.
WTI Stabilizes Below $76 as Markets Assess US-Iran Deal
West Texas Intermediate crude trades near $75.70 on Wednesday, edging down 0.22% as market participants weigh the implications of a potential US-Iran agreement.
UKMTO: Vessel Returns Fire, Suspect Vessels Disengage
The UK Maritime Trade Operations reports that a vessel deployed a security team and returned fire, after which suspect vessels disengaged and moved over four nautical miles away. The crew is safe.
Vessel Fired Upon by Armed Skiffs off Yemen Coast
The UK Maritime Trade Operations reports an incident 105 nautical miles northeast of Aden, where a vessel was approached within 4 meters and fired upon by two skiffs with armed personnel onboard.
Gold Options Bearish Positioning Hits Extremes: GLD Put-Call Skew Near Record
The 6-month put-call skew on GLD has risen to 1.03, near its highest since 2017, while the 3-month skew hit a record 1.19, indicating extremely crowded bearish positioning in gold options.
US and Iran Discuss Moving Up Iran Deal Signing
Axios reports that the US and Iran are negotiating to advance the signing of the Iran deal from Friday to as early as today, with an electronic signing and immediate effect on Strait of Hormuz provisions.
US and Iran Discuss Moving Up Iran Deal Signing to Today
The US and Iran are reportedly discussing accelerating the signing of the Iran agreement from Friday to as early as today. If finalized, the MOU would be signed electronically and parts concerning the Strait of Hormuz would take effect immediately.
Record $5.15 Trillion S&P 500 Options Expiry to Fuel Volatility
A record $5.15 trillion in S&P 500 options are set to expire on June 19, the largest monthly expiration ever. The removal of hedging positions tied to geopolitical risks may amplify market swings.
Macron: Trump Acknowledges Russia Unwilling to Make Peace at G7
French President Macron stated that Donald Trump and other G7 leaders recognized Russia's lack of willingness to pursue peace in Ukraine, marking a shift in the U.S. approach.
Macron: G7 Must Regulate AI, Keep Frontier Models from Authoritarian Regimes
French President Emmanuel Macron calls for tighter regulation of the AI sector and warns that advanced AI frontier models must not fall into the hands of authoritarian regimes, urging democratic cooperation.
Japan and Trump reaffirm broad cooperation on security and economy
Japanese official Takaichi stated that after discussions with President Trump, both sides confirmed continued high-quality cooperation across security and economic areas based on a strong trust relationship.
Brent Oil Outlook: Bears May Pause Above 200-Day MA
Brent crude fell over 15% in four days amid a US-Iran peace deal narrative, approaching levels seen at the start of the recent move. The 200-day moving average could provide support for a brief consolidation.
Fed Meeting May Mark Formal End of Easing Bias, Markets Could Be Disappointed
Today's Federal Reserve meeting is expected to signal the formal death of the easing bias, as resilient US economy and rising inflation pressures remove the case for rate cuts. Markets may be disappointed by a hawkish stance.
US Gold Reserves: Fort Knox Holds 60% of Treasury Stockpile
Fort Knox in Kentucky holds approximately 147.3 million troy ounces of gold, representing about 60% of total US government gold reserves. Other major depositories include West Point and Denver.
Sweden May CPIF Inflation Forecast at 2.6% as Oil Drops Below $80
Sweden's CPIF inflation forecast for May stands at 2.6% with constant taxes, while oil prices have fallen below $80 per barrel amid easing Middle East tensions, though geopolitical risks persist.
ECB's Sleijpen Says Repeat of 2022 Inflation Less Likely but Risk Remains
European Central Bank policymaker Olaf Sleijpen indicated that a repeat of the 2022 inflation spike is less probable, but the possibility cannot be entirely dismissed.
Fed voters show hawkish tilt, limiting scope for Warsh's rate-cut push
According to FXStreet's Speech Tracker, most FOMC voters are hawkish or leaning hawkish, with 6 of 11 scoring 6.0 or higher. This suggests strong internal resistance to aggressive easing, even if nominee Warsh pushes for cuts.
US Retail Sales Surge 0.9% MoM in May, Beating Expectations
US retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month in May to $763.7 billion, exceeding the 0.5% forecast and accelerating from the prior month's 0.5% gain. Year-over-year sales were up 6.9%.
LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange to Launch LME-Listed Flat Steel Futures
The London Metal Exchange (LME) has signed an agreement with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) to launch an LME-listed futures contract offering exposure to the SHFE flat steel market for participants outside China.
Societe Generale Sees Diverging Oil Normalization After US-Iran Deal
Societe Generale analysts note that Brent oil prices are normalizing after the US-Iran deal, but highlight differing adjustments across spot, volatility, and options markets.
Gold Awaits Fed Decision as USD Retreats on Geopolitical Easing
The US Dollar continues to decline amid easing geopolitical risks and fading concerns over Kevin Warsh's dovish stance. Trump claims the Iran agreement is finalized, pushing Brent below $80 and boosting US stocks, while gold markets await the Fed's next move.