Market news
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Europe's LNG Dependence on US Hits Near-Record ~60% of Imports
The US now supplies roughly 60% of Europe's LNG imports, near an all-time high, as the bloc's energy security increasingly ties to American gas.
US Treasuries Post Worst Real Returns Since 1980s, Structural Bear Market
Over the past decade, US Treasuries have delivered an average annual inflation-adjusted return of -3%, the worst since the 1980s, while the S&P 500 returned +12%. The gap between stocks and bonds is the widest since the 1960s.
Pre-Weekend Derisking Triggers Selling in Key Sectors, Not Peace Deal Fears
Stock bulls showed no fear of the long weekend, but selling hit key sectors before the close. The move is attributed to derisking rather than expectations that a peace memorandum could collapse.
Oil Prices Slide on Renewed Peace Talks Optimism
Oil prices fell sharply on Monday as optimism about peace talks between Russia and Ukraine dampened supply concerns, reversing earlier gains from a gap higher at the weekly open.
Iran’s Top Negotiator Travels to Oman to Discuss Strait of Hormuz Cooperation
Iran's chief negotiator will visit Oman for talks on bilateral cooperation and managing arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Foreign Minister Araghchi.
SOX Semiconductor Index Posts Historic Volatility, Up 175% in Year
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has seen nine single-day gains of 5% or more in the last 60 trading days—a level last seen in January 2009. The index is up 175% over the past 12 months and trading at all-time highs.
TD Securities: Fed Hawkish Hold Through 2027
TD Securities forecasts the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance and keep policy rates unchanged through 2026, potentially extending into 2027.
TD Securities: Tight Summer Balances Support Higher Oil Prices
TD Securities analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that crude oil and petroleum product flows from the Middle East have rebounded sharply, but the surge is seen as temporary. Tight summer balances are expected to support higher oil prices.
Polish GDP Growth Slows in Q2, But 2026 Target Remains Achievable
Polish retail sales and construction output disappointed, causing Q2 GDP growth to fall below the 3.5% YoY rate seen in Q1. However, strong investment may still support a 3.4% growth rate by 2026.
Netanyahu Says IDF Has Full Freedom of Action in Southern Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the IDF has no restrictions in southern Lebanon and will remain in a security zone as necessary to protect northern residents.
Dow, S&P Open Higher; Nasdaq Slightly Lower
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 edged higher at the open while the Nasdaq dipped slightly.
US Issues Iran Oil License, Allowing Iranian Oil Exports Until August 21
The US has granted Iran a general license for oil-related activities, permitting the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude and petrochemicals through August 21, marking the first official return of Iranian oil to global markets since 2018.
JPMorgan: Institutions Set to Sell $165B in Equities in End-of-Q2 Rebalancing
JPMorgan estimates institutional investors will sell up to $165 billion in equities and buy bonds in the largest quarter-end rebalancing in at least four years. Major sovereign wealth funds and pension funds are expected to lead the selling.
Data Center Expansion Faces Growing Local Opposition Over Environmental Concerns
Tech companies pushing for faster data center approvals are meeting resistance from communities worried about water, power, land use, and environmental impact.
Student loan defaults hit record high, consumer stress rises
A record increase in student loan defaults highlights growing repayment difficulties, raising red flags for household finances, consumer spending, and credit quality.
Zurich Insurance Warns Data Center Boom May Spur Securitized Insurance Products
Zurich Insurance warns that the scale of global data-center investments may exceed traditional insurers' risk appetite, potentially leading to securitized insurance products to distribute exposure.
76% of Supply Chain Leaders Report More Disruptions in 2026 vs 2023: Gartner
A new Gartner survey finds that 76% of supply chain leaders expect more disruptions in 2026 than in 2023, citing geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, climate events, logistics bottlenecks, and supply-chain realignments.
US VP Vance: Mechanism Set Up to Keep Strait of Hormuz Open
US Vice President JD Vance announced on Monday that a mechanism has been established to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open, aiming to stop hostilities affecting a key global energy chokepoint.
Canada May CPI Seen at 3.1% YoY – TD Securities
TD Securities forecasts Canada's May CPI to rise to 3.1% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, driven by higher energy prices.
Warsh's First Fed Meeting Signals Hawkish Shift Amid Strong Jobs and Iran War Inflation
Kevin Warsh’s initial Federal Reserve meeting has taken a hawkish tone, driven by improving US labor data and an inflation spike caused by the Iran conflict, effectively ending hopes for near-term rate cuts.
Kremlin Says Measures Underway to Address Fuel Supply Disruptions
The Kremlin confirms coordination between the government and oil companies to tackle fuel supply disruptions, while acknowledging tense efforts to minimize negative consequences in Crimea.
Oil and Gold Outlook: Key Economic Data This Week
A preview of USOIL and XAUUSD highlights that upcoming economic data will be the primary short-term drivers for oil and gold prices this week.
Starmer Resignation Seen as Negative for UK Assets
Keir Starmer's resignation has been labeled 'unambiguously negative' for UK assets, confirming market expectations that Andy Burnham will become the next Prime Minister.
UK PM Starmer Resigns, Burnham Frontrunner to Replace
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has formally resigned, confirming weekend reports. He remains as caretaker PM while the leadership contest proceeds, with Andy Burnham emerging as the frontrunner to take over.