Weekly Recap: IG Bets $1.3B on Prediction Markets; Squared Financial's Offshore Operations Stall

This week in broker news was dominated by a blockbuster acquisition, renewed talk of major listings, and fresh questions about an offshore brokerage's operations.

IG Group agreed to acquire US prediction markets and fantasy sports firm Underdog for up to roughly $1.3 billion, including about $1.1 billion upfront and a $200 million earnout. CEO Breon Corcoran said the deal makes prediction markets a core part of IG's long-term strategy, and the company expects it to more than double US revenue while increasing monthly active customers more than tenfold. The purchase also gives IG a vertically integrated US infrastructure spanning brokerage, exchange and clearing, and extends its product range to financial, crypto and macro event contracts. Completion is targeted for late 2026 or early 2027.

Squared Financial's offshore operations came under fresh scrutiny after its Seychelles-based business appeared to have shut down roughly six months after the broker surrendered its Cyprus licence. New clients could no longer open accounts through the website, and online reviews increasingly flagged delayed withdrawals and unreachable customer support. Trustpilot said it removed fake reviews from the firm's profile, while former Nigeria Managing Director Temitope Ijibadejo publicly called on local authorities to investigate pending client withdrawals. The Seychelles licence remains active, and the company did not respond to requests for comment.

Elsewhere, an analysis of EU jurisdiction choices found that Cyprus's corporate tax edge over Poland has narrowed after Cyprus raised its rate to 15%. FM Intelligence modelling suggested a broker may need around €3 million in annual pre-tax profit before the tax advantage offsets higher operating costs. In Portugal, Trade Nation CEO Luis Dos Santos argued that stricter European regulation should strengthen confidence in regulated brokers, adding that his firm chose Portugal for stability and expansion, not cost. The company obtained a CMVM licence after about a year and is now hiring locally, with AI being introduced to support operations rather than replace staff.

Several firms reported robust activity despite headwinds. XTB said shares, ETFs and Investment Plans made up nearly 83% of first transactions by new European clients in the first half of 2026, yet CFDs still produced about 96% of gross income from financial instruments, with commodity CFDs contributing over three-quarters of that total. iFOREX, fresh from its London Stock Exchange listing, saw new client onboarding rise 19% and active clients climb 8%, even as a stronger shekel weighed on reported earnings; adjusted EBITDA met expectations on a constant-currency basis. BlackBull's New Zealand filing showed revenue above NZ$41 million and client funds up almost 87% to nearly NZ$100 million, though profit fell on higher operating costs ahead of its planned dual listing.

On the strategic front, LMAX Group is reportedly exploring options that could value it at up to $5 billion, with a Nasdaq listing the preferred route and Morgan Stanley and KBW advising, according to CoinDesk. That would mark a steep rise from its estimated $1 billion value in 2021. Meanwhile, MAS Group acquired a strategic equity stake in institutional spot FX specialist Solid, calling it the first step toward a full acquisition; no financial terms were disclosed. The deal reverses the 2022 arrangement in which Solid bought a minority stake in what was then BidX Markets.