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ECB to Hold Rates in July, Maintain Tightening Bias – Nordea
Nordea expects the European Central Bank to keep policy rates unchanged at the July meeting, citing lower June inflation and volatile Middle East developments. The move is described as a pause rather than a shift in the bank's tightening stance.
Risk Aversion Flows Intensify Amid AI Tech Rout
Risk-off sentiment continues to grip markets following a deepening rout in AI tech stocks, triggered by the Kimi K3 AI model release and comments from China's President Xi.
TD Securities: GBP Bearish vs EUR on Hawkish ECB Guidance
TD Securities strategists see asymmetric downside risks for the British Pound against the Euro, citing hawkish ECB guidance and undervaluation of EUR/GBP relative to rate differentials.
Yen Recovery Supported by Homeward Investment Shift – MUFG
MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny notes the Japanese Yen remains near cyclical lows, but flows from the GPIF and Japan Trusts are already shifting back home, which could support a recovery.
OCBC: USD Smile Narrative Supports Gradual Gains
OCBC strategists say the US dollar remains supported by its yield advantage and safe-haven status, with FX moves still fitting the USD smile pattern.
UK GDP Beats Forecasts, Burnham Appoints Mahmood as Chancellor
UK GDP outperformed expectations, while odds aggregators had shown Ed Miliband as a 68% favorite for Chancellor before Andy Burnham instead appointed Shabana Mahmood, a more fiscally conservative choice.
Tech Earnings to Test Equities Amid Geopolitical Risks and Dollar Weakness
The US dollar weakened after softer CPI and PPI reports, while traders eye technology earnings for a potential equity boost amid lingering geopolitical tensions.
UOB: USD/JPY Edges Higher, Bias Tilted Modestly Upside Within Tight Band
UOB strategists note USD/JPY has edged higher to around 162.35, with intraday bias tilted modestly to the upside but capped within a tight band. The yen shows a slight downside bias against the US dollar.
USD/CAD Forecast: Further Downside to 1.3970 Possible
USD/CAD edged lower to around 1.4033 during European trading, with analysts seeing potential for a drop toward 1.3970 as the Canadian dollar strengthens on rising oil price concerns.
USD/CHF Rejection at 0.8100 Keeps Dollar on Back Foot
The US Dollar reversed lower against the Swiss Franc on Friday after failing to hold above the 0.8100 level, maintaining a bearish technical outlook. Soft US inflation data continues to weigh on the greenback.
Wells Fargo: Fed to Hold Rates Through 2027, 10Y Near 4.35%
Wells Fargo Economics, led by Tom Porcelli, expects the Federal Reserve to keep the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through year-end 2027, with the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.35% in 2026 and 4.30% in 2027.
ECB September Rate Hike Still Possible, Commerzbank Says
Commerzbank economists led by Dr. Marco Wagner and Dr. Jörg Krämer expect the European Central Bank to leave rates unchanged in July but still deliver a 25 basis point hike in September.
Euro Flat Against US Dollar at 1.1445 as Weekend Approaches
The Euro trades flat against the US Dollar around 1.1445 during the European session on Friday, with caution prevailing amid ongoing US military aggression.
US Dollar Holds Above Support as Risk Sentiment Fades
The US Dollar remains under pressure but holds above a key support zone, while overall risk sentiment begins to fade.
Euro Trims Losses vs Pound on ECB Tightening Hopes
The Euro recovers against the British Pound on Friday, rising from 13-month lows to near 0.8500 amid speculation that the ECB will raise interest rates.
Euro Bullish Bias Capped by Resistance – UOB
UOB strategists note EUR/USD has eased after Wednesday's surge and is now consolidating between 1.1420 and a resistance level, maintaining a bullish bias but capped.
US Dollar Index Loses Traction near 23.6% Fibonacci at 100.85
The US Dollar Index (DXY) pulls back after Friday's uptick, stalling its recovery from a one-month low near 100.35 as sellers emerge near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
NZD/USD Falls Below 0.5850 as US Strikes Iran
The New Zealand Dollar weakened against the US Dollar, slipping to around 0.5840 after the US launched a wave of strikes against Iran, fueling risk-off sentiment.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: More Upside Likely as Pair Stabilizes Above 20-Day EMA
The Australian Dollar is hovering near 0.6990 against the US Dollar, edging slightly lower as the greenback strengthens on renewed US inflation fears. However, stabilization above the 20-day EMA suggests further upside potential.
EUR/USD Struggles for Direction, Commerzbank Says
Commerzbank strategist Volkmar Baur notes EUR/USD lacks clear direction, citing the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and diverging inflation dynamics as clouds on the horizon.
Japan FinMin Katayama: No change in stance that BoJ determines monetary policy
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reaffirmed on Friday that the government's position remains unchanged: specific monetary policy decisions are left to the Bank of Japan.
USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 162.40 After Breaking EMA Resistance
USD/JPY trades around 162.40 during Asian hours on Friday, maintaining a bullish bias after breaking above both the nine- and 50-period exponential moving averages.
Indian Rupee Ticks Up on RBI Intervention, Downside Seen
The Indian Rupee opened slightly higher against the US Dollar, with USD/INR easing to near 96.30 after the Reserve Bank of India intervened. However, analysts favor further downside for the INR.
US Inflation Data Shows Decline in June, Producer Prices Also Fall
US consumer prices declined in June, and producer prices also fell, according to recent data. Underlying inflation showed signs of easing, offering encouragement to financial markets.