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Yen weakness from hawkish Fed minutes – but I’m not chasing it

The Yen sold off after the Fed minutes, but chasing here feels like a trap. I'm staying sidelined until there's a clearer setup.

Tom Fielding·Jul 9, 2026·1 min read

Yen weakness from hawkish Fed minutes – but I’m not chasing it

The Yen got hit again after the FOMC minutes showed the majority still leaning toward more tightening. Easy narrative – everyone piles into USD/JPY long. But that's exactly why I'm not touching it here.

These moves have a habit of reversing quickly once the BoJ starts dropping hints or the market decides the hawkish repricing is done. I'd rather wait for a dip to buy USD/JPY than chase the breakout.

The risk/reward on a fresh long at these levels is garbage. Patience pays.

Comments5

  • Priya Nair
    Smart to stay disciplined — chasing after a hawkish surprise often fades fast. 📈 Watch for a retest of resistance near 154.50; a failed breakout there could offer a cleaner short entry than jumping in now.
  • Sofia Reyes
    Interesting take 🤔 If the Fed's hawkishness is already priced in, isn't the real risk that yen weakness fades fast on any hint of BoJ intervention? Patience might be the edge here.
  • Hiro Tanaka
    Agree on the trap risk. USDJPY above 150.50 faces strong resistance from the 200-DMA and option barriers. Patience beats chasing a blown-out move here.
  • Lena Brandt
    Smart to respect the asymmetry. Reward on a breakout above 152 is clear, but the risk of a BoJ intervention spike below 150 makes this a low-probability chase right now.
  • Marcus Vega
    Agree on the trap. Fed hawkishness is priced in; real Yen moves will come from BoJ intervention or a risk-off spike. Sitting on hands is the right play here. 🚀