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fxJun 5, 2026, 11:40 AM

TD Securities forecasts softer Canada jobs data, reinforcing dovish BoC view

TD Securities expects Canada's May employment to rise by only 5,000, well below the consensus estimate of 10,000, after a loss of 18,000 in April. The unemployment rate is seen steady, adding to the case for a dovish Bank of Canada.

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TD Securities economists project a subdued recovery in Canada's labour market for May, with employment expected to increase by just 5,000 — half the market consensus of 10,000. This follows a sharp drop of 18,000 jobs in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged.

The weaker-than-expected jobs growth is seen reinforcing a dovish tone at the Bank of Canada, as the central bank may need to maintain accommodative policy to support the economy. This outlook could weigh on the Canadian dollar in the near term.

Key points:

  • May employment change: TD estimates +5k vs consensus +10k
  • April reading: -18k
  • Unemployment rate: steady
  • Implication: supports dovish BoC stance, bearish for CAD

Source: FXStreet Forex News