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macroJul 24, 2026, 12:55 PM

Oracle Credit Risk Surges: CDS Hit Record, Downgraded to BBB-

Oracle's credit default swaps have quadrupled since mid-2025 to a record ~203 bps, surpassing the 2008 crisis peak. S&P downgraded Oracle to BBB-, one notch above junk, citing AI spending.

ORCL

Oracle's credit risk is rising sharply. Its 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) have reached a record ~203 basis points, meaning protection against default now costs $203,000 per $10 million of principal. The CDS level has more than quadrupled since mid-2025, surpassing even the peak seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Bond spreads are also widening. The spread on Oracle's 6.7% notes due 2056 widened by +8 bps on Monday to 263 bps, while the spread on its 5.7% notes due 2036 widened +9 bps to 205 bps.

On July 9, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle to BBB-, just one notch above junk status, citing the company's rapidly increasing AI-related spending as a key concern.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter