Commerzbank: FOMC under Warsh likely to hold hawkish, limiting EUR/USD upside

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that the FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh is set to be a “hawkish hold.” Despite hopes for softer signals from the Fed, the analyst sees the central bank keeping rates unchanged while stressing readiness to tighten further. Markets are already pricing in at least one rate hike in the coming months. This positioning reinforces dollar strength and leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to a pullback if the Fed’s tone aligns with those expectations.