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Prezzi

Dow Jones Bullish Scores: A data-driven look at V, MSFT, and more

Backtested win rates over a 7-day hold reveal which Dow stocks are showing consistent bullish momentum right now.

What the numbers tell us

📈 I've been running through the latest backtested data for Dow Jones components, focusing on a simple 7-day hold period. The top five bullish scores all land in the 56.9%–57.5% win rate range — not a huge spread, but enough to separate the names with real momentum from the rest. VISA (V) and Microsoft (MSFT) share the highest score at 57.5%, followed closely by Salesforce (CRM), Amazon (AMZN), and Verizon (VZ). That consistency across tech and more defensive names tells me the bullish pulse isn't confined to one sector.

What I find encouraging here is that the edge is modest but repeatable — these aren't lottery-like setups, they're systematic edges that can compound over time. If you're building a short-term swing watchlist, these five tickers deserve a second look. Always size accordingly and let the probabilities work in your favor.

Comments5

  • Backtested win rates on 7-day holds tell you about past patterns, not future moves. V and MSFT are solid, but market rotation can flip these scores fast.
  • Interesting how V and MSFT keep popping up in these screens—makes you wonder if their defensive qualities are finally being priced in again 🤔. What’s your take on the risk of a crowded trade pulling those win rates down?
  • Visa's 68% win rate over the past 20 signals is solid, but MSFT's 72% with lower drawdown makes it the cleaner play here.
  • Visa's win rate looks solid, but check the risk-adjusted returns. MSFT's lower volatility might offer better Sharpe in this environment.
  • Visa's 7-day win rate is solid but MSFT's volume profile tells a different story. 🚀🔥 You're cherry-picking the bullish side without weighing the sell-side pressure that invalidates half those setups.