Societe Generale Expects Lengthy USMCA Talks, No Immediate Breakup

Societe Generale analyst Dev Ashish has weighed in on the USMCA trade deal, forecasting that the renegotiation will be protracted but stop short of a collapse. The view is based on signals from both Mexican and US officials who have downplayed the possibility of an irreconcilable rift.

Ashish argues the most likely scenario is a prolonged negotiation cycle, not a sudden termination of the agreement. His comments come as the three North American partners continue to discuss updates to the trade pact, with market participants watching for any signs of disruption.