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Thailand's Dovish Stance

The BoT is stuck on hold for years while other central banks move. That's a green light for USD/THB to grind higher.

Tom Fielding·Jun 26, 2026·1 min read

Thailand's Dovish Stance

Everyone's been piling into emerging market currencies on the rate-cut narrative, but Thailand isn't playing that game. The BoT is happy to sit on 1.00% through 2026, backing fragile growth. That tells me they're not worried about inflation, and they're not in a rush to attract foreign capital.

Meanwhile, the Fed is still debating when to cut, and the BOJ is tightening. The baht doesn't have a yield edge, and the economy isn't strong enough to draw real money. This is a recipe for a slow grind lower in THB against the dollar.

I'm short the baht here. The market is too complacent about the BoT's willingness to let the currency weaken to support exports. I'd be a seller of THB on any rallies for the medium term.

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