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macroJul 1, 2026, 11:58 PM

Venezuela Oil Output to Recover to 1.1-1.2 Mln bpd by Q2 2026, EIA Sees Oversupply

Venezuela's oil production is expected to recover to 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day by the end of Q2 2026 as the US expands export authorizations. The EIA predicts global oil supply will outpace demand through 2027, leading to higher inventories and lower prices, with Brent averaging around $57.69/bbl in 2026 and $53/bbl in 2027.

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Venezuela's crude output is projected to rebound to 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day by the end of the second quarter of 2026, supported by expanded US export authorizations that allow more companies to transport and market Venezuelan oil.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global oil supply to exceed demand through 2027, resulting in rising inventories and downward price pressure. Brent crude is forecast to average about $57.69 per barrel in 2026 and approximately $53 per barrel in 2027.

This outlook reflects a persistent oversupply scenario, with producers maintaining output while demand growth slows. The recovery in Venezuelan production adds to the supply side, reinforcing the bearish macro backdrop for crude prices.

Source: First Squawk