S&P 500 Shows Strong July Seasonality With 11-Year Winning Streak
Historical data shows the S&P 500 averages a 2.5% gain in July, over four times the average of other months, and has not declined in July for 11 consecutive years. The index has also posted 24 all-time highs in 2026, historically leading to further gains.
Since 2005, the S&P 500 has averaged a +2.5% gain in July, more than four times the average increase seen in the other 11 months of the year. The index has not recorded a July decline for 11 consecutive years, the longest positive streak for any month in that period.
So far in 2026, the S&P 500 has posted 24 all-time highs, ranking among the top 20 strongest starts to a year since World War II. Historically, when the index has experienced a similar streak of highs, it has rallied an additional +6% over the following six months on average.
Seasonal patterns suggest continued bullish momentum for the S&P 500 this month.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter