ING: ECB Summer Hikes Are Insurance, Not Based on Current Data

According to ING analyst Carsten Brzeski, the European Central Bank’s recent signals about further rate hikes this summer should be viewed as insurance policy rather than a response to current economic conditions.

Brzeski argues that the ECB is being guided by its 2022 inflation experience, not by present data. Eurozone headline inflation remains moderate, and survey-based expectations are stable. This suggests the central bank is preemptively guarding against a repeat of past price pressures, even though the immediate need for tightening is not supported by today’s numbers.