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fxJun 16, 2026, 8:08 AM

EUR/USD Faces Downside Risks as Swap Differential Widens – ING

ING analyst Francesco Pesole notes that EUR/USD has returned to Friday's levels, with markets now focusing on central bank dynamics rather than oil. A wider EUR:USD swap differential, coupled with weaker Eurozone growth and a less dovish Fed, limits upside for the euro.

EURUSD

ING's Francesco Pesole highlights that EUR/USD has retraced to levels seen on Friday, as market attention shifts from oil price movements to central bank policy divergence.

The euro faces an unstable floor with downside risks, according to Pesole. A wider EUR:USD swap differential is contrasted by weaker Eurozone economic growth and a Federal Reserve that is perceived as less dovish than before. These factors collectively cap any bullish attempts for the single currency.

Source: FXStreet Forex News