XTB Analyst Lifts 2026 Profit View 50% After Three Quarterly Forecast Misses

Noble Securities analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski has increased his 2026 net profit forecast for Warsaw-listed broker XTB to approximately PLN 1.5 billion ($394.5 million), a 50% jump from his January estimate of PLN 1 billion ($263 million). In an interview with Polish newspaper Parkiet, Chrzanowski cautioned that the company’s share price already reflects “many positive scenarios,” even as he pointed to recent volatility as a driver of stronger earnings.

The revised outlook comes after three consecutive quarterly profit forecasts from the analyst that overstated actual results. In Q3 2025, Chrzanowski expected XTB to earn PLN 190 million ($50 million), but the company reported just PLN 53.2 million ($14 million) — a miss of 257% due to low profitability per lot and client gains in market-making trades. His Q4 estimate of PLN 205 million ($53.9 million) was 13.6% above the reported PLN 180.5 million ($47.5 million). For Q1 2026, he projected PLN 650 million ($170.9 million), while XTB delivered PLN 535 million ($140.7 million), an overestimate of 21.5%.

Chrzanowski’s client acquisition forecasts have been more accurate. Before Q3 2025, he estimated about 200,000 new clients, close to the actual 222,000. His full-year projection of 865,000 new clients matched XTB’s official figure of 864,286. However, profitability per CFD lot varies widely: PLN 152 ($40) in Q3 2025 climbing to PLN 439 ($115.50) in Q1 2026. XTB noted that predictable market trends in Q3 2025 favored clients, compressing its market-making revenue.

The analyst’s current annual estimate implies a sharp slowdown after the first half. Adding his Q2 2026 projection of PLN 403 million ($106 million) to the Q1 result gives a first-half profit of about PLN 938 million ($246.7 million). To reach PLN 1.5 billion, XTB would need roughly PLN 562 million ($147.8 million) over the final two quarters, equivalent to about PLN 281 million per quarter — well below the Q1 level. Chrzanowski expects 320,000–330,000 new clients in Q2, above management’s stated target of 250,000–290,000 per quarter.

Separate data from FM Intelligence estimates XTB had 851,000 active accounts in Q2 2026, down 1% from the prior quarter, with monthly trading volume falling 25.7%. The dataset does not capture revenue or trade profitability. Chrzanowski described two consecutive quarters of high volatility as “an anomaly” and cautioned that “recurring net profit is lower than what we will see in Q2.” He also cited CMC Markets’ upgraded outlook as a factor improving sentiment toward listed brokers.