tastytrade Launches CFTC-Regulated Prediction Markets for…

tastytrade has become the first brokerage to offer CFTC-regulated prediction markets directly on its platform, giving retail customers access to event contracts covering macroeconomic and financial events such as Federal Reserve rate decisions, inflation data, employment reports, market volatility, commodities and cryptocurrencies.

The contracts, available around the clock, are short-duration instruments priced between $0.01 and $0.99. A contract priced at $0.65 implies a 65% market-assigned probability that the event will occur. Correct predictions settle at $1; incorrect contracts expire worthless. Traders can close positions before settlement as expectations shift.

tastytrade is using Apex Fintech Solutions’ turnkey futures commission merchant infrastructure to provide the clearing and operational systems. The arrangement allows tastytrade to avoid building its own futures clearing operations, lowering the cost and technical barrier for offering event contracts. The product fits tastytrade’s user base, which is familiar with derivatives, probability and short-term market views.

Competitive landscape

The move places tastytrade against standalone prediction market venues like Kalshi and ForecastEx, as well as other brokerages entering the space. Robinhood already offers regulated event contracts through third-party exchanges, and Moomoo has also entered the sector. By embedding prediction markets directly into existing brokerage accounts, tastytrade reduces the need for traders to fund and manage separate platforms. This could give brokerages an edge in user acquisition and cross-product trading.

For exchanges like ForecastEx, wider brokerage distribution can increase order flow. ForecastEx operates as both a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization, listing contracts tied to interest rates, inflation, economic indicators, climate and political events.

Regulatory backdrop

The launch comes as regulators and courts debate whether federally regulated prediction markets fall under derivatives law or can be restricted under state gambling rules. The CFTC has maintained that event contracts on regulated exchanges are derivatives under its jurisdiction and has been working on rules to distinguish contracts with economic value from those contrary to the public interest. A federal judge recently blocked Minnesota from enforcing a state prohibition on prediction markets while litigation continues, signaling that the CFTC likely holds primary authority.

By integrating event contracts into its existing interface designed for active options and futures traders, tastytrade is betting that convenience and familiarity will drive adoption. As more brokers enter the market, competition is expected to center on contract selection, pricing, liquidity and platform experience.