Luno Launches Prediction Markets in South Africa and Nigeria

Luno, the cryptocurrency exchange operated by Digital Currency Group, has rolled out a new feature called Prediction Markets that lets customers take outcome-based positions on short-term price movements of digital assets. The product is initially available to users in South Africa and Nigeria.

Prediction Markets enable users to predict whether the price of a selected cryptocurrency will be above or below a specific level at a predetermined time. If the prediction is correct, the user receives a payout in USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin. Supported assets include Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Ripple (XRP).

Unlike Luno's existing Price Predict tool — a free, educational feature that rewards correct guesses with BTC — Prediction Markets require participants to commit real capital. Funds must be moved from a user's USDC wallet to a separate USDC Predictions wallet, with no internal transfer fees charged by Luno.

The markets are powered by Limitless, a peer-to-peer decentralized exchange, which applies an adaptive fee structure. Buying fees range from 0.03% to 3%, with higher-probability outcomes generally incurring lower fees. Selling fees start at 0% and can rise to 1.5% as the event probability approaches 50%. An estimated fee is shown before transaction confirmation. Successful payouts incur blockchain network fees determined by network congestion at the time of transfer, not set by Luno.

Users can manually claim payouts after a correct prediction. If a payout remains unclaimed for 30 days, it is automatically sent to the USDC Predictions wallet, minus the applicable network fee.

Luno cautioned that trading in short-term prediction markets carries risk, including total loss of capital if the prediction is wrong. However, the risk is capped at the amount committed to each prediction.