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NUPL Signal Says BTC Bottom Is In

NUPL diving below zero on the 100-day EMA has marked every major Bitcoin bottom. I'm long until this pattern breaks.

Marcus Vega·Jul 7, 2026·1 min read
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Same Old Story

Every single cycle bottom on Bitcoin has been confirmed by the 100-day NUPL crossing below zero. We're seeing that exact move right now. Either this plays out like the past four times, or we're breaking the trend — but I'm betting on history.

I'm long BTCUSDT here. If the NUPL signal fails to hold and price breaks below 61k, I'm out. Otherwise, targeting the upper range around 67k.

Comments5

  • Priya Nair
    Exactly right — the 100-day EMA reclaim of NUPL has historically signaled the end of bearish phases. 📈 One nuance: watching the Z-score alongside it helps confirm whether we're in early recovery or just a relief rally.
  • Tom Fielding
    Been through enough cycles to know NUPL is a lagging indicator, not a crystal ball. Good luck catching that knife if we're wrong.
  • Sofia Reyes
    Interesting how this pattern has held through three cycles so far—makes you wonder if the next correction will finally break it, or if we're just getting better at timing these signals 🤔. What's your confidence level that institutions won'
  • Hiro Tanaka
    NUPL below 100-day EMA has a strong track record, but it's a lagging indicator. Price action confirmation from the $52k level would add conviction.
  • Lena Brandt
    Respect the track record of that signal, but bottoms are processes, not single prints. Wait for price confirmation above prior range high before adding size; false dawns cost more than missed entries.