US Hiring Rate Drops to Second-Lowest Since Pandemic, Conflicting with Strong Jobs Reports

The US hiring rate dropped 0.3 percentage points in April to 3.2%, marking the second-lowest reading since the pandemic low of 2020, according to data cited by The Kobeissi Letter. The figure is also in line with levels seen in 2008.

Excluding government, the private hiring rate fell 0.4 percentage points to 3.5%, matching the pandemic-era trough. Both metrics remain significantly below levels recorded during the 2001 recession. The overall hiring rate has now stayed at or below 3.5% for 26 consecutive months.

Despite this weakness, the JOLTs report and the May nonfarm payrolls both crushed consensus expectations, painting a contradictory picture. The note concludes that US hiring remains historically depressed even as headline job numbers appear robust.