US Dollar Long Positioning Hits 18-Month High, Crowded Trade Risk
Speculative long positioning in the US dollar surged to $34.3 billion as of June 23rd, the highest in 18 months, while bearish yen positions near multi-year highs. The data suggests the trade may be overcrowded and due for a reversal.
As of June 23rd, speculative long positioning in the US dollar reached $34.3 billion, the highest level in 18 months. This marks a more than threefold increase in bullish bets over just seven weeks and the 15th consecutive week of net long positioning — the longest such streak since a 21-week run between 2024 and 2025.
The positioning covers hedge funds and asset managers who take directional views based on price trends and macro factors, rather than hedging currency exposure.
Separately, leveraged funds’ bearish yen positions rose to 115,033 contracts in the week ended June 23rd, near the highest since November 2017. The extreme concentration of long-dollar bets raises the risk of a sharp reversal.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter