Thai Baht holding up despite export slowdown
Exports missed expectations for May, but the baht is stabilising on capital inflows. I'm watching for continued support from tourism and electronics resilience.
Baht resilience in the face of a softer export print
Thailand's May exports came in at +10.6% year-on-year, well below the consensus and a sharp deceleration from April's 23.1% surge. Agriculture shipments are clearly weakening, but electronics remain resilient. The official 8% export growth forecast for 2026 suggests the government expects front-loading to fade gradually.
Despite the miss, the baht is stabilising on the back of solid capital inflows. The current account surplus, tourism recovery, and foreign portfolio flows are providing a bid. I see a balanced risk/reward here — the export data is a headwind, but the flow picture continues to support the currency.
I'm keeping a medium-term long bias on the Thai baht. The setback in exports doesn't change the underlying support from services and electronics, and inflows remain the dominant driver for now. I'd look for pullbacks to add exposure, but discipline is key — any sustained weakness in tourism or a shift in global risk appetite would be the main risk to watch.
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