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Weekly Data Preview: USOIL and XAUUSD Ahead of Key Economic Releases
A preview of weekly data for USOIL and XAUUSD, with upcoming economic data expected to drive near-term price action.
ING: Zloty Most Vulnerable Among CEE FX in Risk-Off
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky says Central and Eastern European FX is driven by global headlines and hawkish US repricing, with local data having limited impact. The Polish zloty is seen as most vulnerable in a risk-off environment.
AUD/USD Faces Key Support at 0.7000 as Rally Pauses
The Australian Dollar's recent uptrend has stalled, with AUD/USD pulling back to the 0.7000 support zone. A fresh catalyst is needed to resume the rally, while USD dynamics and geopolitics weigh.
Silver Hovers Near 200-Day SMA After Sharp Drop, Downside Risks Persist
Silver (XAG/USD) edged higher on Monday after an nearly 8% plunge on Friday triggered by a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The data reinforced expectations of prolonged higher Fed rates, keeping downside pressure on the metal.
South Korea Steps Up FX Defense as Won Hits 2009 Lows
South Korean authorities held an emergency meeting and vowed stern action against speculative FX activity as USD/KRW trades at its weakest since 2009. The National Pension Service has resumed forward FX selling with a higher hedge ratio.
Hawkish RBI Holds Rate at 5.25%, Warns on Inflation and Currency
DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao says the Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance but a hawkish tone, highlighting inflation and currency risks for FY27.
Canadian Dollar Softens as Gulf Peace Hopes Weigh on Oil Prices
The Canadian Dollar weakened on Monday as a pullback in crude oil prices, driven by Gulf peace hopes, weighed on the commodity-linked currency. USD/CAD traded near 1.3950.
British Pound Edges Higher as Iran-Israel Halt Hostilities
The British Pound rose 0.10% on Monday as risk appetite improved following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with US President Trump demanding an end to hostilities to resume talks.
Euro Holds Near 1.1540 as Sentix Data and ECB Decision Awaited
EUR/USD trades near 1.1540 on Monday as investors digest mixed Eurozone Sentix confidence data and focus on the upcoming ECB rate decision.
BBH: Norges Bank Stance Supports NOK Crosses; May CPI Key
Brown Brothers Harriman notes that Norges Bank's stance is supportive for Norwegian Krone crosses. The May CPI print could be pivotal, with a hot reading potentially leading to another rate hike after May's surprise increase.
RBI and Government Measures Could Drive $40bn Inflows, Supporting INR: MUFG
MUFG analyst Michael Wan says new Reserve Bank of India and government measures could generate about $40 billion in inflows, partially plugging India's FY2026/27 balance of payments and supporting the rupee near term.
USD/JPY Holds Firm Near 160.00 as Yen Struggles Despite Weaker US Dollar
The Japanese Yen remains under pressure, keeping USD/JPY near the psychologically important 160.00 level despite a softer US dollar. Lingering intervention fears cap upside, as traders monitor fast-changing headlines from the Middle East.
Dollar Gains on Safe-Haven Demand and Higher Yields: BNY
BNY's Bob Savage notes escalating Middle East tensions and rising U.S. Treasury yields are driving risk-off flows, supporting the Dollar at two-month highs.
TD Securities: Bank of Canada to Hold Rates at 2.25% Through 2026
TD Securities economists expect the Bank of Canada to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% at the June meeting and throughout 2026, citing persistent inflation risks despite softer domestic conditions.
ECB Insurance Hike Seen Limiting EUR/USD Upside – OCBC
OCBC analyst Sim Moh Siong expects the ECB to deliver a one-off 25 bps ‘insurance’ rate hike to 2.25%, with updated projections showing higher inflation and weaker growth, which may limit EUR/USD upside.
NFP Headline Strong but Details Weak, USD Surges to 100
Non-farm payrolls beat expectations, but hourly earnings fell and participation/unemployment rates showed no improvement. Yields spiked but failed to pressure equities, while the USD surged to the 100 level.
Hungarian Forint Appreciation Prompts Stability Target, ING Says
ING economists note the Hungarian forint has sharply appreciated, with investors treating Hungary as a quasi-eurozone, and policymakers aim to maintain stability around fair value.
Fed Extended Pause Outlook After Strong US Jobs – UOB
UOB's Alvin Liew notes that stronger-than-expected US payrolls and higher oil prices have sharply reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Euro Under Pressure as German Data Signals Recession – BNY
BNY strategist Bob Savage notes that Euro area Sentix sentiment remains in contraction territory, with Germany still classified as recessionary. German manufacturing orders plunged in April, led by autos and machinery, despite a slight improvement in sales.
DXY Supported by Hawkish Fed Repricing and Risk-Off Flows: ING
ING economist Chris Turner notes that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is underpinned by the market repricing of a hawkish Federal Reserve and a risk-off tone in equities ahead of key US CPI and PPI releases.
BBH Flags Downside Risks for Pound as UK GDP Set to Contract
Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Elias Haddad highlights downside risks for the British Pound, citing expectations of a UK GDP contraction in Q2 and market pricing for further BoE rate hikes due to persistent second-round inflation.
Gold Steadies After Hitting Two-and-a-Half-Month Low, Fed Caps Gains
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly on Monday after falling to its lowest since April, supported by Middle East tensions but limited by hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.
DBS: RBI and Government Coordinate to Attract Foreign Capital, Support Rupee
DBS Group Research notes that the Reserve Bank of India and the government have unveiled coordinated measures aimed at attracting foreign capital and bolstering support for India's external sector.
Euro Bounces from Three-Month Lows as Focus Turns to Middle East
EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1540 after hitting a three-month low of 1.1505, with traders eyeing geopolitical developments in the Middle East.