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macroJul 9, 2026, 4:22 PM

Whipsaw in Rate Expectations After Payrolls and Strait of Hormuz News

Market expectations for a December rate hike reversed course over five sessions after a weak payrolls print, then rebounded on renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The month of July began with market pricing fully anticipating a rate hike by December. However, over the next five trading sessions, expectations swung wildly.

A dismal nonfarm payrolls report showing only 57,000 jobs added caused traders to unwind tightening bets. Subsequently, news of a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reversed that move, pushing expectations back toward a December hike.

Source: FXStreet Forex News