US Labor Data Shows Record 564K Gap Between Payroll Surveys in June
June's nonfarm payrolls rose 57,000 while the household survey recorded a loss of 507,000 jobs, creating a massive 564,000 discrepancy. Year-to-date, household employment has fallen 1.7 million, contrasting with a 552,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls.
A stark divergence emerged in the latest US labor market reports. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June, but the household survey—which counts each worker only once—showed a loss of 507,000 jobs, the third-largest monthly drop since January 2024.
The gap between the two surveys reached 564,000, highlighting a widening inconsistency in how employment is measured. On a year-to-date basis, total employment in the household survey has declined by 1.7 million to 162.26 million, the lowest since December 2024.
Over the same period, nonfarm payrolls have added 552,000 jobs, reaching a record 158.98 million. Analysts are questioning which measure better reflects the true state of the labor market.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter