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fxJul 2, 2026, 1:22 PM

US Jobs Data Disappoints, Weighs on Dollar Rate Expectations – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analyst Bernd Weidensteiner notes that June nonfarm payrolls rose only 57,000, far below consensus, with prior months revised down by a combined 74,000. Slowing monthly job growth and a softer inflation outlook are putting downward pressure on Fed rate expectations.

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Commerzbank analyst Bernd Weidensteiner highlighted that US nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 in June, significantly missing consensus estimates. Revisions to previous months subtracted a total of 74,000 jobs, painting a weaker labor market picture.

The six-month average of job gains is expected to continue declining, as monthly growth has been slowing steadily. Combined with a softer inflation outlook, this data is weighing on expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Weidensteiner suggests that the combination of cooling employment and easing price pressures could lead the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance, which in turn may limit upside for the US dollar.

Source: FXStreet Forex News