SARB Expected to Hike 25 bps to 7.25% on Inflation – Commerzbank

Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur views it as almost certain that the South African Reserve Bank will deliver a 25 basis point rate hike at its upcoming meeting, bringing the repo rate to 7.25%. This move would reverse approximately one-third of the easing cycle that began in 2024-2025.

The expected tightening comes after inflation re-accelerated, driven by higher fuel prices and core inflation components. Baur notes that the SARB's decision is a key factor for the rand's near-term direction.