WTI Refining Margin Hits Record $59 per Barrel
The 3-2-1 WTI refining margin has reached a record $59 per barrel, nearly tripling since the start of 2026, driven by a severe global refining capacity shortage due to the Iran War and attacks on Russian refineries.
The 3-2-1 WTI refining margin, a key measure of profit from converting crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, has surged to an all-time high of $59 per barrel. This marks nearly a threefold increase since the beginning of 2026.
Historically, this metric averaged around $10 per barrel from 1985 to 2021 and never exceeded $30 per barrel even during the 2004-2008 refining boom. The current record reflects a sharp drop in global refining capacity—estimated at roughly 10% or 8 million barrels per day offline—due to the Iran War, attacks on Russian refineries, and lower fuel exports.
As a result, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices remain elevated, even though crude oil trades about $40 per barrel below its March high. Global refiners are capturing exceptional profits amid tightening supply.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter