ING: Canada Jobs Report May Reinforce BoC Caution, Weigh on CAD
ING analyst Francesco Pesole notes that Canada's June jobs report is expected to show a sharp slowdown in hiring while wage growth picks up, keeping the Bank of Canada from a hawkish shift.
ING's Francesco Pesole highlights that Canada's upcoming June jobs report is projected to reveal a marked deceleration in hiring alongside an acceleration in wage growth. Despite the wage pickup, Pesole argues that the bar for a hawkish pivot by the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains high.
According to the analyst, benign inflation figures and ongoing risks related to the USMCA trade agreement will likely prevent the BoC from adopting a more aggressive stance. This cautious outlook suggests limited upside for the Canadian dollar in the near term.
The combination of softer employment data and persistent external uncertainties keeps the loonie under pressure, with markets pricing in a prolonged period of BoC restraint.
Source: FXStreet Forex News