Market news
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ECB Expected to Hold Rates, Iran Tensions Keep September Hike Alive
The European Central Bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged at its Thursday meeting following a June hike, but heightened geopolitical risks from Iran are increasing the chances of another move in September.
Sterling Overbought; Burnham Premiership Poses Downside Risk
Sterling is considered overbought, with markets uneasy about Andy Burnham's first day as UK prime minister and the surprise appointment of John Healey as chancellor, pointing to fiscal uncertainty.
Gold Rebounds on US-Iran Conflict Safe-Haven Demand
Gold prices edged higher as renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran boosted safe-haven demand, while expectations of tighter US monetary policy continued to support the dollar.
MUFG: Energy Shock and Japan Policy Risks Weigh on Yen, USD/JPY Near YTD Highs
MUFG analyst Lee Hardman warns that a negative energy price shock, driven by rising Brent crude amid US-Iran tensions and Houthi shipping threats, is pressuring the Japanese yen. USD/JPY remains just below its year-to-date highs as Japan's policy risks add to the headwinds.
EUR/GBP Extends Decline in Final Wave E
EUR/GBP continues its downtrend as expected, now developing the final wave E of a corrective structure. Bearish momentum is building.
MNB Expected to Cut Base Rate to 5.75% – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose forecasts Hungary's central bank will reduce its base rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%, continuing the easing cycle started in June amid lower inflation.
ING: CNB stance supports CZK against Euro
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes that the Czech National Bank's policy stance is supportive for the koruna against the euro, even as CEE FX markets remain driven by US-Iran tensions and oil prices.
GBP/USD Falls to 1.3437 After UK Cabinet Changes
GBP/USD dropped to 1.3437 on Tuesday as investors reacted to the appointment of Andy Burnham as the new UK Prime Minister and assessed the monetary policy outlook.
US Dollar Index Stays Sticky to 20-Day EMA on Ceasefire Hopes
The US Dollar Index remains anchored near its 20-day exponential moving average, slipping marginally as ceasefire optimism reduces safe-haven demand.
USD Steadies as Market Eyes US-Iran Tensions, UK Jobs Data Beats Expectations
The US dollar remained stable as markets focused on the US-Iran conflict and inflation worries, while UK employment data for May came in better than expected, providing some support for the pound.
Canadian Dollar Pressured by New US Tariffs – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analyst Volkmar Baur warns that new US tariffs of 50% on selected Canadian dairy, alcohol, and automobile products under Section 338 will undermine the USMCA trade framework, weighing on the Canadian dollar outlook.
Yen Weakens Against Dollar for Fourth Day, USD/JPY Hits 162.60
The Japanese yen depreciated against the US dollar for the fourth consecutive session, with USD/JPY trading around 162.60 during European hours on Tuesday, as Japanese banks were closed for Marine Day.
Swiss Franc Edges Higher as USD/CHF Fails to Hold Above 0.8100
The Swiss Franc strengthened against the US Dollar on Tuesday, with USD/CHF failing to sustain gains above the 0.8100 level amid risk-off market conditions.
NZD/USD Rises Above 0.5850 as Hot CPI Data Boosts RBNZ Rate Hike Bets
The New Zealand Dollar strengthened against the US Dollar in early European trading on Tuesday, supported by hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data that reinforces expectations of further rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Fed Inflation Framework Questioned Amid High Oil Prices – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analyst Volkmar Baur says persistent high oil and energy prices complicate the Federal Reserve's inflation stance, with markets only modestly pricing in further adjustments.
GBP/JPY Reverses Three-Day Slide After UK Jobs Data
The British Pound snapped a three-day losing streak against the Japanese Yen, rebounding to near 218.55 after the release of UK employment data for the three months ending.
British Pound Holds Near 1.3450 After UK Employment Data
GBP/USD trades around 1.3450 during early European hours on Tuesday, supported by the latest UK employment figures.
EUR/USD Downside Bias Capped at 1.1390 Support – UOB
UOB analyst Quek Ser Leang notes EUR/USD retains a mild downside bias after breaking below 1.1405 support, but expects losses limited to tests of 1.1390.
EUR/JPY Holds Gains Above 185.50, Supported by EMA Levels
EUR/JPY edged higher during Asian hours on Tuesday, trading around 185.50 after three consecutive days of losses. The cross remains above both the 9-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, suggesting mildly bullish momentum.
Indian Rupee Rises on Middle East Peace Hopes
The Indian Rupee opens higher against the US Dollar on Tuesday, with USD/INR correcting to near 96.34 from a two-month high of 96.76, driven by renewed hopes of de-escalation between the US and Iran.
USD/CAD Intraday Rally Stalls Near 1.4100 Confluence Hurdle
The USD/CAD pair extended its recovery for a second day on Tuesday but faced resistance near the 1.4100 confluence area, after bouncing from the lowest level since mid-June around 1.4000.
Indonesian Rupiah Extends Gains; USD/IDR Falls for Sixth Day
The Indonesian rupiah continues to strengthen, with USD/IDR declining for a sixth consecutive session to trade around 17,940 during Asian hours.
AUD/JPY Holds Bullish Above 113.50, Supported by Rate Differential
The Australian dollar strengthened against the yen in early European trade Tuesday, with the cross holding above 113.50 and staying above its 100-day SMA, supported by the interest rate gap between the RBA and BOJ.
Gold Recovery Continues, $4,065 SMA Key for XAU/USD Buyers
Gold extends its recovery to a third straight day after hitting two-week lows near $4,024, with acceptance above the 21-day SMA at $4,065 seen as critical for buyers.