Market news
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USD/CAD Drops to One-Month Low as Oil Rally Boosts Canadian Dollar
The Canadian Dollar strengthened on surging oil prices, pushing USD/CAD to a one-month low around 1.4022. The pair is on track for a second consecutive weekly loss.
USD: Energy shock may delay downtrend – MUFG
MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny says the ongoing Middle East conflict, stronger US data, and crude oil risks are limiting USD selling. Better manufacturing and retail figures have not shifted Fed expectations much, but a full rate hike remains priced in.
Hungarian Forint Under Pressure Against Euro but Story Intact – ING
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky reports broad risk-off sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe, with elevated oil prices and higher core yields pushing regional rates up. Hungarian assets have been heavily sold due to crowded longs, but the overall story for the forint remains intact.
NZD/USD Falls as US Strikes on Iran Fuel Risk Aversion
NZD/USD declined to around 0.5830, down 0.19% on the day, as investors sought safe-haven assets after US strikes on Iran.
EUR/USD Stays Sideways as 1.1480 Caps Bulls
EUR/USD continues its sideways movement, trading at 1.1430 after failing to break above 1.1480, as geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices limit euro gains.
Gold Steadies Below $4,000 as Hawkish Fed Outlook Caps Recovery
Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Friday but lacks bullish momentum as rising oil prices revive inflation concerns and reinforce expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates.
TD Securities Says Pound Rally vs Euro Looks Overextended
TD Securities' macro team warns that the recent sterling rally versus the euro appears overextended, suggesting a potential pullback.
Dollar Steadies on Tech-Led Risk-Off Flows
The US dollar recovered some of this week's losses as a technology-driven equity selloff triggered a flight to safety, according to Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Elias Haddad.
Swiss Franc Lagging as SNB Intervention Risk Persists: OCBC
OCBC strategists note the Swiss Franc has lost safe-haven appeal due to ongoing intervention risk from the Swiss National Bank and low yields.
GBP/USD Extends Decline as UK Leadership Change Weighs
The British Pound continues to weaken against the US Dollar for a second straight day, trading 0.4% lower near 1.3427 amid the ongoing UK leadership transition.
Gold Breaks Below $4000, Tests Key Support
Gold trades below $4000 for the first time since early November 2025, after failing to sustain above that level for nearly a month. The break below this psychological threshold signals a potential shift in short-term momentum.
US Dollar Recovers as Risk Appetite Declines, FOMC Hawkish
The US Dollar has regained ground lost over the previous two days, supported by a decline in global risk appetite and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which signals a potential rate hike if inflation remains above target.
BoJ Expected to Keep Rates at 1% in July, Kyodo Reports
According to a Kyodo News report, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 1% during its July policy meeting. The central bank may also raise its growth forecast.
Yen Slides to 162.50, Nearing 40-Year Low
The Japanese Yen weakened for a second straight day against the US Dollar, trading near 162.50, approaching the 40-year low of 162.84 hit earlier.
ECB to Hold Rates in July, Maintain Tightening Bias – Nordea
Nordea expects the European Central Bank to keep policy rates unchanged at the July meeting, citing lower June inflation and volatile Middle East developments. The move is described as a pause rather than a shift in the bank's tightening stance.
Risk Aversion Flows Intensify Amid AI Tech Rout
Risk-off sentiment continues to grip markets following a deepening rout in AI tech stocks, triggered by the Kimi K3 AI model release and comments from China's President Xi.
TD Securities: GBP Bearish vs EUR on Hawkish ECB Guidance
TD Securities strategists see asymmetric downside risks for the British Pound against the Euro, citing hawkish ECB guidance and undervaluation of EUR/GBP relative to rate differentials.
Yen Recovery Supported by Homeward Investment Shift – MUFG
MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny notes the Japanese Yen remains near cyclical lows, but flows from the GPIF and Japan Trusts are already shifting back home, which could support a recovery.
OCBC: USD Smile Narrative Supports Gradual Gains
OCBC strategists say the US dollar remains supported by its yield advantage and safe-haven status, with FX moves still fitting the USD smile pattern.
UK GDP Beats Forecasts, Burnham Appoints Mahmood as Chancellor
UK GDP outperformed expectations, while odds aggregators had shown Ed Miliband as a 68% favorite for Chancellor before Andy Burnham instead appointed Shabana Mahmood, a more fiscally conservative choice.
Tech Earnings to Test Equities Amid Geopolitical Risks and Dollar Weakness
The US dollar weakened after softer CPI and PPI reports, while traders eye technology earnings for a potential equity boost amid lingering geopolitical tensions.
UOB: USD/JPY Edges Higher, Bias Tilted Modestly Upside Within Tight Band
UOB strategists note USD/JPY has edged higher to around 162.35, with intraday bias tilted modestly to the upside but capped within a tight band. The yen shows a slight downside bias against the US dollar.
USD/CAD Forecast: Further Downside to 1.3970 Possible
USD/CAD edged lower to around 1.4033 during European trading, with analysts seeing potential for a drop toward 1.3970 as the Canadian dollar strengthens on rising oil price concerns.
USD/CHF Rejection at 0.8100 Keeps Dollar on Back Foot
The US Dollar reversed lower against the Swiss Franc on Friday after failing to hold above the 0.8100 level, maintaining a bearish technical outlook. Soft US inflation data continues to weigh on the greenback.