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macroJul 14, 2026, 12:49 PM

US June CPI Misses Forecasts, Inflation Cools More Than Expected

US headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month in June, well below the -0.1% forecast, while annual inflation eased to 3.5%. Core inflation also softened, with monthly reading flat and yearly rate slowing to 2.6%.

US inflation data for June came in cooler than expected across the board. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped 0.4% month-over-month, significantly undershooting the -0.1% forecast. On a year-over-year basis, inflation slowed to 3.5%, compared to the 3.8% estimate.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained flat month-over-month (0.0%) versus the 0.2% expected. The annual core inflation rate eased to 2.6%, below the 2.8% consensus and down from the prior 2.9%.

The softer readings reinforce the narrative of easing price pressures in the US economy. Markets are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the coming months.

Source: First Squawk