BOE Set for Extended Rate Pause with Higher Bar for Hikes, ING Says

ING economist James Smith anticipates the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged at its July 30 meeting, with a high hurdle for any further tightening. He projects the MPC will maintain current levels through a prolonged pause that could last until 2026.

Updated inflation forecasts from the central bank are expected to show UK price growth peaking near 3%, significantly below the 4% threshold that had been seen as a potential trigger for additional hikes.

The relatively benign inflation outlook underscores the view that the rate-hiking cycle is effectively complete, shifting market focus toward the duration of the hold period.