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EUR/GBP Holds Firm as Weak UK GDP, Hawkish ECB Support Euro
EUR/GBP traded around 0.8633 on Friday, supported by hawkish ECB rhetoric and weak UK GDP data that highlighted a slowing British economy.
ING: CEE FX Sees Risk-On Bounce on US-Iran Headlines, Policy Remains Key
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes that headlines about a possible end to the US-Iran conflict triggered a risk-on move, helping Central and Eastern European currencies recover recent losses. However, monetary policy remains a key factor.
CAD Weighed by Weaker Oil, USD Holds Near 1.40 – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists note the Canadian Dollar remains pressured by declining oil prices amid Iran peace hopes, though improved risk appetite provides limited support. The USD/CAD pair holds near the 1.40 ceiling.
New Zealand Dollar Dips as Robust US Data Boosts Dollar
NZD/USD fell to 0.5830 on Friday, down 0.15% on the day, pressured by strong US sentiment and inflation figures that underpinned the US Dollar.
ECB Hawkish Forecasts Suggest Higher Terminal Rate – Nomura
The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25% and signaled more hawkish forecasts, potentially leading to a higher terminal rate according to Nomura's European Economics team.
GBP/USD Poised to Fall Toward 1.3100 – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Elias Haddad expects GBP/USD to decline to 1.3100 as US growth outperforms the UK.
ING: US-Iran Peace Deal Talk Softens Dollar but DXY Holds Firm
ING strategist Chris Turner notes that a potential US-Iran peace deal has softened the dollar, but the DXY index remains resilient as energy supply and inflation risks persist.
Canadian Dollar Falls on Weaker Oil, Strong US Inflation
The Canadian Dollar weakened against the US Dollar on Friday, trading near 1.3990, as falling oil prices and robust US inflation data supported the USD while the BoC shows little urgency to raise rates.
ECB Likely to Continue Hiking Despite Softening Oil – Nordea
Jan von Gerich of Nordea notes the ECB delivered a widely expected 25bp rate hike and expects further tightening, with the next move likely in July. Broader inflation pressures mean lower energy costs alone won't ease policy.
Mexican Peso Steady but Faces USMCA Risks: Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists note that the Mexican peso remains stable despite increasing challenges, with inflation cooling to 3.94% in May and Banxico signaling the end of its easing cycle, though USMCA risks loom.
Commerzbank: Warsh's First Fed Meeting Unlikely to Cut Rates
Commerzbank analysts predict Kevin Warsh's first Federal Reserve meeting will not result in a rate cut, citing elevated PCE inflation and a still-solid labor market.
EUR/USD Trades Flat Near 1.1575 as 1.1600 Resistance Holds
The Euro gave back earlier gains against the US Dollar and is trading practically unchanged at 1.1575, with bulls unable to breach the 1.1600 level.
MUFG: Higher-for-Longer Rate Backdrop Supports US Dollar
MUFG analysts argue that firmer US inflation and resilient labor markets underpin a higher-for-longer global rates backdrop, supporting the US dollar.
EUR/USD Expected to Drift Toward 1.1400 – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad expects EUR/USD to edge lower toward 1.1400 as US growth outperforms, following a brief dip near 1.1500 after the ECB decision.
British Pound Steady on Iran Peace Hopes Despite Weak UK GDP
The British Pound holds a moderately positive tone against the US Dollar as optimism over a US-Iran peace deal offsets disappointing UK GDP data.
USD/BRL Faces Downside Risk, SocGen Says
Societe Generale analysts note USD/BRL rebounding from near 4.88, approaching key resistance around 5.25. They highlight downside risk if support near 4.99 fails.
Iran's IRNA Reveals Key Terms of US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding
Iran's state news agency IRNA has published the key terms of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) being discussed with the United States. Bloomberg earlier reported the MoU is expected to be signed in Geneva.
India May CPI Rises 3.93% YoY, Misses 4% Estimate
India's annual consumer price inflation eased to 3.93% in May, below the market expectation of 4% but above the prior month's reading.
Gold Holds Near $4,220 on US-Iran MoU Hopes, Mean Reversion to 20-Day EMA Seen
Gold price holds near $4,220 during European trading, extending Thursday's recovery on expectations of a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. Analysts suggest a mean-reversion move to the 20-day EMA is likely.
Silver (XAG/USD) Bulls Target $69.00 as Market Mood Improves
Silver (XAG/USD) is recovering losses during Friday's European session, trading in the mid-$67.00s as improved market sentiment supports bullish momentum toward the $69.00 target.
Polish Zloty under pressure as president blocks key reforms – Commerzbank
Commerzbank warns that President Karol Nawrocki's record number of vetoes, blocking legislation on crypto, tax and healthcare, is weighing on the Polish zloty. The bank expects obstruction to continue until 2027.
USD Upside Persists on Resilient Data, Says BBH Analyst
Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Elias Haddad notes that while improving US-Iran relations briefly weakened the dollar, resilient economic data supports further USD gains.
US-Iran Deal on Strait of Hormuz Nears Signing in Geneva – Bloomberg
Bloomberg reports that US and Iranian officials are close to signing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a possible agreement by the weekend as G7 leaders prepare to meet.
Nordea Sees Medium-Term Upside for EUR/USD
Nordea strategist Jan von Gerich argues the dollar has underperformed relative to historical patterns and expects a higher EUR/USD in the medium term, despite the pair remaining stuck between 1.15 and 1.16.