US Prime-Age Labor Participation Rate Posts Record Drop in June
The US labor force participation rate for 25- to 54-year-olds fell 0.6 percentage points in June—the second-largest monthly decline on record. The overall participation rate has now dropped for seven consecutive months to 61.5%, the lowest since February 2021.
The US labor market showed further signs of weakness in June as the prime-age (25–54) labor force participation rate fell by 0.6 percentage points, marking the second-largest monthly decline since records began in the 1940s. This metric measures the share of Americans in that age bracket who are either working or actively seeking work.
According to data cited by The Kobeissi Letter, only the April 2020 pandemic shutdown saw a larger monthly drop. The June decline matches several historical episodes in 1968, 1960, 1953, 1952, and 1951. As a result, the prime-age participation rate slipped to 83.3%, the lowest since December 2023.
Meanwhile, the overall labor force participation rate has fallen for seven straight months, reaching 61.5%—its lowest level since February 2021. The deterioration suggests underlying softness beneath the headline employment figures.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter