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fxJul 6, 2026, 12:48 PM

FedWatch Probability at 24.1% as Weak Data Week Begins; Warsh Aims to Squash Speculation

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 24.1% probability of a rate move, while this week's light data schedule intensifies focus on the Fed minutes. New Fed chief Warsh is reportedly trying to curb speculation about forward guidance.

The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 24.1% probability of a rate move, according to market pricing. This week features light economic data, putting the spotlight on the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Some traders are looking to the minutes for hints on policy bias, but incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly keen to quash speculation about forward guidance. The low probability reflects market uncertainty ahead of the release.

Source: FXStreet Forex News